What Happened in the Cryptocurrency Market During the Week of November 1-7

BTC ETH BASE SOL Solana Tether
  1. US Presidential Election - November 5
  2. US Federal Reserve Rate Decision - November 7
  3. US Unemployment Claims - November 7
  4. Conclusions

US Presidential Election - November 5

This Tuesday, the election of a new US president will take place . This time, the competition will be between US Vice President Kamala Harris (candidate from the Democratic Party) and former President Donald Trump (candidate from the Republican Party).

US president

According to Polymarket , the vote is currently in Trump's favor, with 57.9% to Harris's 41.9%. Meanwhile, Kalshi, another forecasting platform, has the margin slightly smaller, with Trump at 55% to Harris's 45%.

US president

Throughout the election campaign, it was Donald Trump who was much more active in engaging with the crypto community, which by 2024 had become a significant part of the American electorate. In just a few months, the politician released a new NFT collection , launched his own DeFi project, made his first public Bitcoin transaction, and even promised to turn the United States into the world's crypto capital.

Kamala Harrisg has made far fewer such statements. However, the candidate has also stated that if elected, she intends to support and develop the digital asset industry. She has focused on creating a safe business environment and stimulating investment in crypto. Her thesis has also found a response in the community - BIC previously reported that Harris is strengthening her position in prediction markets.

Meanwhile, analysts believe that both Trump and Harris will be equally beneficial for the industry. Experts note that the two candidates have completely different approaches to regulation, but each of them can bring their own advantages.

US Federal Reserve Rate Decision - November 7

This Thursday, at 21:00 Moscow time, the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve on the key interest rate will take place.

The rate is currently at 5.00% after the regulator cut it by 50 basis points for the first time since March 2020. At that time, the crypto market responded to the decision with a noticeable increase. This time, most investors are expecting another reduction - only not by 50 bp, but by 25 bp. Thus, according to forecasts, the rate may be 4.75%.

Robinhood's crypto trading volume reached $14.4 billion in Q3 2024, up 114% year-over-year. Robinhood's crypto trading volume has increased significantly over the past 12 months.

US Unemployment Claims - November 7

This Thursday , a report on the number of applications filed by U.S. citizens for unemployment benefits will be released. This data is collected and processed by the U.S. Department of Labor on a weekly basis, and therefore is quite volatile.

According to forecasts, 220 thousand applications were submitted in the reporting week, compared with 216 thousand in the previous week.

It is worth noting that actual numbers that are higher than expected are considered negative/bearish for the US dollar. Lower than expected numbers, on the other hand, indicate positive/bullish sentiment for the USD.

Conclusions

This week, all the market's attention will be focused on news from America. Of course, the main topic will be the upcoming presidential elections, which will have the greatest impact on the health of the US dollar and Bitcoin.

Interest rate decisions and unemployment claims, while not expected to have the same significant impact on the market, could still cause short-term volatility in digital assets.

Plutonex